Nigeria’s headline inflation rate has reduced to 23.71 percent in April 2025, down from 24.23 percent recorded in March according to the latest figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The development marks a 0.52 percentage point decrease and reflects the first significant moderation in inflation figures since the NBS adopted a new Consumer Price Index (CPI) base year of 2024, with 2023 as the reference period for expenditure weights.
According to the NBS, the drop in inflation is largely due to a decline in the average prices of staple food items such as maize flour, wheat grain, yam flour, soya beans, rice, and various types of beans.
On a month-on-month basis, inflation slowed considerably to 1.86 percent in April, down from 3.90 percent in March — a sharp drop of 2.04 percentage points.
“This decline signals a momentary relief for Nigerian households,” an NBS official noted, “especially in the face of ongoing economic challenges and volatile commodity prices.”
Food inflation — a major driver of headline inflation — stood at 21.26 percent year-on-year in April.
Month-on-month, the rate declined marginally to 2.06 percent from 2.18 percent in March.
Analysts say this reflects seasonal price moderation and slight improvements in supply chains.
“While the food inflation rate is still troubling, the slowdown in April suggests that the worst may be over — at least for now,” said Ngozi Ojeifo, a Lagos-based economist.
“But the figures also show wide disparities across states, which is a concern.”
Core inflation, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, stood at 23.39 percent year-on-year.
Month-on-month, core inflation dipped to 1.34 percent in April from 3.73 percent in March.
Breakdown of the newly introduced inflation sub-index showed farm Produce 2.64%, energy 9.21%, services 3.44%, and goods 3.89%.
Urban inflation was higher than rural inflation, continuing a long-standing trend.
On a year-on-year basis, urban inflation stood at 24.29 percent, while rural inflation was 22.83 percent.
But in a surprising shift, the urban inflation rate on a month-on-month basis dropped significantly to 1.18 percent in April — down from 3.96 percent in March.
Rural inflation also saw a month-on-month decline, falling to 3.56 percent from 3.73 percent.
State-level data revealed sharp contrasts in inflationary pressures across the country:
Headline Inflation (Year-on-Year)
Highest – Enugu (35.98%), Kebbi (35.13%), Niger (34.85%)
Lowest – Ondo (13.43%), Cross River (17.11%), Kwara (17.28%)
Headline Inflation (Month-on-Month)
Highest Increases – Sokoto (16.26%), Nasarawa (16.02%), Niger (14.74%)
Declines – Oyo (-6.45%), Osun (-4.54%), Ondo (-3.44%)
Food Inflation (Year-on-Year)
Highest – Benue (51.76%), Ekiti (34.05%), Kebbi (33.82%)
Lowest – Ebonyi (7.19%), Adamawa (9.52%), Ogun (9.91%)
Food Inflation (Month-on-Month)
Highest Increases – Benue (25.59%), Ekiti (16.73%), Yobe (13.92%)
Declines – Ebonyi (-14.43%), Kano (-11.37%), Ogun (-7.06%).
While the drop in inflation offers a measure of relief, analysts caution that sustained improvement will depend on macroeconomic stability, fiscal discipline, and stronger agricultural output.
“The April figures give policymakers a breather,” said Dr. Musa Ibrahim, a development economist. “But structural issues like insecurity in farming areas and unstable exchange rates could easily reverse these gains.”
The Central Bank of Nigeria is expected to respond to the new inflation data in its next Monetary Policy Committee meeting, where interest rate decisions will be closely watched.
